Always ask when seeing success

Did they really?

Fresh out of college and broke after betting it all on my small movie I had to work for my family. And as I was eking out some grub money, World Series of Poker was taking the world by storm, so if those poorly dressed dudes could make a milli why can’t I?

I really didn’t want to work for the man, let alone my dad. I want to be the guy driving the convertible.

Phil Ivey was the man. He had that cool stare as he took your loot. Just a phenomenal player.

(I’m still wearing ball caps as a result of this)

But did he really?

Did he really pocket $55 million? We are going to visit him at the end of this little journey I call

Did they really?

Instead of poker, I am 100% sure many young people, without realizing it, are gravitating to event-based betting sites like Polymarket as they see some shlub making $100k.

But did they really?

Look at today’s headline:

It’s not just in gambling.

It’s in entertainment more broadly. Here is the epic example.

Sadly, the great music producer Clive Davis passed away. He truly was a legend but even legends have a mortgage to pay.

And one of his biggest acts Milli Vanilli were lip syncing other singers voices. He gave the audience what they wanted, which was anything but reality. But an escape from it.

Need more examples?

Wall Street. It’s making a big comeback right?

(Maybe you know some girl who dreams at taking on Wall Street, but I am hard pressed to see believe that. Spending money yes, but making it.

Well, to be determined, this summer my daughter is working with me)

and yet is Wall Street really making a comeback?

I just saw this in the Wall Street Journal.

Speaking of Wall Street, they make their money on margin loans.

The more loans, the more interest. And the more leveraged trading. They now have competition in Perp Futures.

But are they really “shaking up” Wall Street?

Personally, it’s enriching them as it is yet another marginal area that will get a bid and keep those stocks rising.

Leveraged trading

really LEVERAGED trading

At least with futures, and margin on stocks, you are responsible for the losses so some form of animal spirit is left in check, but with the creation of Options and now Perpetuals you can dream big and bet bigger.

I come back to my eBook on 8 key factors of market health, where Sunday, I touched on IPOs Sunday with Goldman Sachs and today this headline smacks of liquidity. The markets need to keep pumping and with margin loans at record highs. A “risk free” perpetual contract with leverage is the next best thing.

I feel perpetuals are the modern day bucket shop to allow small accounts to place trades on $1000 stocks and

24 hour trading…

When you have virtually unlimited leverage, no closing price, and non-stop trading is this a real market anymore. Are people trading a company? Or just the price action?

what’s the true closing price?

Does price action truly represent?

Volume

Do you really believe chart patterns can work as people practice them now if the underlying premise is that the current price represents everything we know about a stock.

But what if MOST people that trade don’t know anything about the stock and they use more leverage than the people that do????

Then the theory will reflect an ignorant viewpoint as opposed to an informed one.

Here is how Google summarize price action of markets:

What are your thoughts?

Eventually everything comes full swing but we are making a mockery of markets and making it a casino game. Who needs to read Adam Smith when I can pull up a 5 second chart of SpaceX?

Cynically, I’m beginning to believe the rich under the Ann Rayndian libertarian viewpoint are anxious for a 99% market crash, so they will own all our resources.

Kind of like communism but with benevolent dictators

So whats the next 10 years like?

I feel the true power now is in trading commodities for foreseeable future.

And something more tangible for those that want to get their hands dirty.

Building things.

Alexander Cortes is spearheading a movement unlike anything we have seen. Instead of Communism and Socialism this longhaired bro is teaching youngsters to build and develop themselves.

My viewpoint is not exactly mainstream but lets revisit Phil Ivey and finish up my thinking.

Did he really cash in $50 million? He may have won it but he had help. Whose to say he shared it with other people at the table to increase his odds?

Does his skills pay off in the real world?

Well read this headline from 2014. The house wouldn’t let him.

So the moral: by humble enough to know the old axiom “the house always wins” and if you are that 1 guy who happens to make two trillion dollar companies Tesla and SpaceX

Aspire to be that guy. And see how long it took him to achieve success.

He bet on himself and that is the only way to win

Unfortunately, it’s the only one where motivation comes from not comparing yourself to someone else, but improving yourself daily

Make it the most profitable day by treating yourself kindly

You are the best investment you can make.

Eric