Everything Looks Good
That’s When You Should Prepare
A Dino from Texas typed something into chat yesterday.
“Man, everything looks good today.”
Most people read that and nod.
People who’ve made calls for a living hear something else.
That’s a rebuttal.
It’s what someone says when they’re no longer asking questions.
Bull markets are loud. They reward confidence. They confuse trends with skill.
That’s why amateurs feel smart.
Professionals don’t feel smart. They feel exposed.
That’s the difference.
When times are good, everyone is a genius. When times are bad, nobody wants to buy.
Yin and yang.
Dinosaurs understood this
Not the museum kind. The capital allocators who’ve seen enough cycles to know extinction never sends a press release.
They don’t ask what’s hot. They ask how long they can survive if they’re wrong.
Money management. Allocation. Drawdown tolerance.
The part no one tweets about.
Retail wants to crush the market. Pros want to still be here next year.
Both lose money. Only one usually survives the winter.
Screenshots of performance persuade, or even lie.
I posted an image as a response on chat
People love that quote because it sounds noble.
But in markets, courage looks boring.
It looks like not chasing. Not celebrating. Not believing your own headlines.
Which brings us to Berkshire Hathaway.
They’re selling. They’re selling more. And they’re quietly piling into U.S. dollars.
No speeches. No victory tours.
Just dinosaurs doing dinosaur things.
Old money hates smugness. Smugness is how you get wiped out.
Maybe they don’t like hearing politicians declare victory. Maybe they’ve seen this movie before.
Who knows.
What I do know: the men show up every day. The boys show up when it’s fun.
Not bravado. Repetition.
Which brings me to Venezuela.
Once rich. Once stable. Once serious.
Monster energy reserves. Real industry.
Then oil fell. Preparation didn’t happen. Reality got replaced with ideology.
Enter Chávez. Then the usual clean-up crew: Iran, China, Russia.
Not history. A warning label.
Someone wrote today that the biggest Substack accounts are the ones teaching others how to market on Substack.
True. For now.
Culture thrives in bull markets. So do stock newsletters.
But newsletters are cyclical. Just like portfolios.
Only dinosaurs survive downturns.
You don’t outsource that. You develop it.
As a reader. As an investor. As a writer.
Daily.
I joked that Chevron probably has a better working relationship with Maduro than Newsom.
Not politics. Business.
You work with whoever runs the show.
American companies have always done this.
IBM sold punch card systems to Nazi Germany in the 1930s to help organize census data. The machinery later facilitated Holocaust logistics. Disgusting. Also factual.
Morals show up after payroll.
Not cynicism. How systems actually work.
And that brings us to the dollar.
Unloved. Unfashionable. Ignored.
The U.S. is still chugging along.
Capital is coming in. Fraud is being shut down. Tariffs is creating Treasury surpluses. Employment should follow.
China’s oil tap? Less reliable by the day.
The dollar is dirt cheap—not because America is finished, but because confidence runs in cycles.
The dollar can rise with commodities. With stocks. With rates.
If the demand is real.
Not a trade. A framework.
Consider it. And consider UUP (the US Dollar ETF).
Dinosaurs don’t chase narratives. They survive by defaulting to what lasts.
And not on Debt.
Have a great Tuesday.
Eric
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