Keeping Score

Lou Holtz Way

Lou Holtz the famed “Fighting Irish” coach passed away just before St Paddys and rest assured I’ll be having a pint for him quoting some of his famous quips.

So while I finish up my longer masterpiece insights that will be read by few, but thoughts by the succesful, I wanted to share with MARKET LOGIC de jour

So if I asked you at the pub for a Guinness, at what price level is the Aussie currency, given that commodities like Gold are at all-time highs

The drunk bro would say “Hi” or “High.”

And drunk indeed, the Aussie is bouncing around 20-year lows

And so when Gold got hammered, the Aussie did as well, but why?

There is no correlation, it seems

Australia is in prime LOCATION in this geopolitical landscape we are in now.

Of course, things can change, but any weakness in the currency is an opportunity.

So why talk about currencies at all?

Aren’t stocks driven by earnings and fundamentals?

Yes.

But currencies measure something even more basic:

purchasing power and capital flows.

Currencies are one of the best early-warning systems in global markets.

They often move before stocks, commodities, or even political policy shifts become obvious.

That’s why macro hedge funds and central banks obsess over them.

Most investors barely glance at them.

But just watching it can indicate

• China’s slowing construction sector
• tighter global liquidity
• investors crowding into the U.S. dollar

Keep an eye on:

EWA
IAF
DBA

I breakdown some more impactful ideas below