Margin Debt
An indicator you intuitively know
While I have no idea when a market will weaken, I did share that when put-to-call ratios are low, the markets tend not to be strong.
The markets and the headlines began to reflect that reality.
Another indicator is how much margin investors take to buy stocks. It’s the equity version of home flipping.
You are using the bank's money to turn profits quickly.
Here is a headline you may have seen but overlooked.
It’s saying that a possible top is in order when Koreans are betting it all on higher prices.
Of course, the data in Korea is much less euphoric than in USA
The Korean market, after crashing last year, rallied 350% and hasn’t done anything for 16 years.
The headline to me with this chart says that Koreans are sensing an economic turn around.
Now, if we JUST look at the SP500 to margin debt in the USA, it definitely doesn’t look healthy.
https://en.macromicro.me/charts/415/us-margin-debt
But it does say that if the trend of debt drifts high, the market tends to commensurate.
And, of course, vice versa.
This is a chart no one really talks about, and you can’t play games with this data. So watch the trends to see where it may lead.
I do feel that while people pick stocks, you gotta kind of know where the money will flow to in order to elevate your stock holdings
Make it an insightful Wednesday. I’ll be dealing with two teens in the back of my car for 10 hours.
Eric





