Pie in Face
Or Key Lime Pie?
After writing about $ABAT, the stock went down just as much as it went up
Does that mean I have a pie in the face?
Or is it the beginning of a tasty but sour Key Lime Pie?
This is actually a good question, especially if you bought and saw a big down move IMMEDIATELY.
The math and logic haven’t changed, but when you buy a speculative company, you need to make sure it’s
Promise
Potential
and Liquidity
Will keep them in the game long enough for it to pay off.
These three bullet points are important in any publicly traded company.
PROMISE
For me, it’s management and their ability to execute. In their IR, they made it clear who they are and where they came from:
Success
Remember: Tim Cook left his cozy job at Compaq to create a revolution at the penny stock Apple.
They are making a connection with investors by attending events where there are 5 this month.
If you have time, try to attend one.
POTENTIAL
Solving a problem for the US
And this is how they propose to do it
LIQUIDITY
I don’t care if they issue 100% new shares, as long as they won’t go bankrupt and put the money to use building a moat.
That’s how the tech industry created trillions of dollars of value.
It was not from making money on day 1 but from creating an insurmountable moat that no one can scale.
If you don’t have the luxury of venture capital or of getting in on pre-IPO, then these companies exist on the public market.
They have cash and no debt. But I’m not sure that’s enough.
Additionally, this is where I place fundamental analysis.
Not in Promise, or Potential. But in “What’s my risk?”
Unless you dig deep, you might as well pass the heavy lifting to someone who enjoys it as much as they enjoy coffee.
A good analyst isn’t trying to tell you what to buy or how much you’ll make, but to give you insight and confidence into a company.
That's where a good analyst earns their keep, not telling you what to buy, but giving you confidence in the downside. Mith Besler does exactly that on Substack. Again, Substack is that rare platform where you can find this. If you go to StockTwits, X, or SeekingAlpha … it’s more for people acting smart. Currently, so far, the writers here are less constrained by a “format” and can write and be inspired.
My only question is, what is the Total Addressable Market for Lithium?
Right now, with my limited time, AI has told me that the TAM for Lithium that ABAT 0.00%↑ is addressing:
$600M–$900M in annual revenue from one project alone.
The market cap is less than that.
There is more to build on. I only approach this as a passive investor with a bent for large outsized gains.
Make it a Wonderful Wednesday.
Eric
PS. If you want an idea on how to do it with options, subscribe
