Sable Profits
The Bet is who has the Power: Federal or State
One method of investing is putting your money on sure-things. Companies that have the assets and resources, but not the permits to operate. Most of the time it’s dead money, but when the tides change so do the opportunities.
One such case that you probably didn’t hear about is Sable Offshore, SOC.
When we started digging into Sable Offshore Corp, the stock crashed from $20 to $6.
Nobody wanted to touch it. California had sued them, the Coastal Commission was fining them into oblivion, and the press had painted them as a cartoon villain trying to blow up the coastline.
Now it has moved $3 today and is trading at $8. And if you’re asking if you missed it? The answer is no. You also just got a second invitation to a high-voltage constitutional experiment on the power of the Federal vs State government.
Sable isn’t a new startup with a pitch deck and a PDF. It’s a company with three oil platforms off Santa Barbara, formerly owned by Exxon, with proven reservoirs and a pipeline system that, before it was shut down in 2015, pumped out 34,000 barrels a day. Not theoretical. Actual barrels. Actual cash flow.
The assets are still there. The oil is still flowing. The only thing missing? A permitted way to move it.
And that’s the core of the trade.
You’re not buying oil. You’re buying the right to break a blockade.
The opposite of Venezuela.
California doesn’t want this oil to move. Regulators, counties, commissions: everyone has thrown legal, procedural, and political bricks at Sable. But none of that changes one fact: the reservoirs work. The infrastructure exists. And the new plan of using a floating storage vessel in federal waters to bypass California entirely isn’t just plausible. It’s actively in motion.
Houston Chronicle just covered it.
The press is starting to realize: this isn’t a stunt. It’s a live energy project that might actually flip the script.
Why $8 isn’t expensive
It used to be $30, and the news is a lot more positive now. I don’t think the shares were diluted to oblivion.
And that’s before a single new barrel is sold.
What the market missed at $6, it’s starting to notice at $8: Sable isn’t just a lawsuit magnet. It’s a levered play on energy sovereignty. If Trump’s team gives them cover and they already are, and the Coast Guard signs off on offshore offloading, California won’t be able to stop them.
You’re betting that a functioning energy asset, backed by federal jurisdiction and priced like a legal disaster, actually lives to pump again.
This is not investment advice. It’s narrative awareness.
Not Kalshi, or a Prediction Market, you can invest and follow the outcome with a lot more upside than a bet, or hold it forever.
So you can buy the AI story. Or you can buy the ones with court transcripts and tankers.
Sable is up 60% since we looked.
The risk remains high.
But so does the potential.
It’s not often you get a chance to buy working infrastructure in a standoff with the State of California. I mean, try buying a house, or let’s build one in LA.
$8 is not expensive.
It’s just a second chance.
You’re not late. You’re early enough.
This isn’t a trade for the crowd. It’s a thesis for those paying attention.
If you’re following this, you’re inside the story now.
Watch the headlines. Watch the permits. Watch the case.
And when the oil moves, you’ll know precisely why it matters.
Seize the Day,
Eric
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