So What if the Shoeshine Boy Has a Tip?
With All Time Highs will the Uber driver own Uber?
There was an old story that Joseph Kennedy, father of the former President John F Kennedy, sold the market short the moment a shoeshine boy started giving him tips.
You know, do the opposite of the crowd.
On my way to work, I was listening to a fascinating 30-minute breakdown of CRM Software, a company founded by a protege of Larry Ellison of Oracle fame.
CRM has done, until recently, an amazing job for customers, investors, and being a part of the Dow Jones Industrial index, the most coveted index on the planet.
But recently, the stock has tanked 50%
As I mentioned before, many stock sectors have stunk despite the fact that the cash flow is like a milking cow in its prime (I’m from a small town, what do you expect my analogies to be)
And I wanted to buy it today because I don’t think software will go the way of newspapers.
And then, as soon as I was about to consider investing, my Uber driver was telling me to buy a CRM and some other stocks…
Does that make my daily emails and thoughts have any value?
Am I washed up?
Is this comment signaling a market top is occurring?
Or is it different than 1929?
After some reflection, I first think that if he’s looking at it, his time frame is short-term, so during that period it may be a value trap.
And probably better to observe.
But in the long term, he will be nowhere to be found. No one really holds stocks long term. And that is an edge that is an investor’s superpower to have something for the long term with a portfolio (not passive) of good companies (not great) that slowly appreciate over time.
The problem is always the time you have left to participate which leads me to the next thought…
CRM won’t 10x your money, as the Uber driver is aiming for. What he is doing is finding a blue-chip stock that’s beaten up to act as a growth company.
That won’t happen immediately.
It worked for Carvana and Avis Car, but that’s two examples out of how many?
And they crashed, going down over 70%
If it’s truly a top, the Uber driver is betting big on a bunch of penny stocks with dreams of glory, like what happened sadly in crypto.
What is occurring now is that the Uber driver is saying I’m happy with my lot, and I'm going to aim to make a bit more than the S&P 500.
That says CAUTION, not greed.
Greed is when they go big on a penny stock like FLYX, which, as of my last check, I’m the only one who believes has a shot.
or ABAT, in which only one man on the planet has given it a colonoscopy
Look, real contrarian bets don't come from Uber drivers. They come from one analyst, a dog, and plenty of time on his hands.
I’m not saying it will go up 10x, but I do know if some wealthy guy hears of it from the Uber driver, he probably flew in one of their jets and didn’t consider it as an investment
Or a lithium recycling monopoly? Huh? Is it in AI?
Think of it like an Apple computer. Even if everyone in the world owns Apple, everyone has the thought it’s unique to them. That’s the charm of Apple.
At the end of the day,
No one wants a tip on something they have. It makes it seem that you and the Uber driver are on the same playing field.
Everyone wants to be unique and special, and the same goes for stock ownership.
The top will only occur when penny stocks start to go up 10,000%
Have a great weekend, and don’t forget to subscribe. At a certain point, it will dawn on you that what I’m doing daily is subtle but worthwhile.
Otherwise, buy this writer a shot of tequila
A powerful Friday to you, sir,
Eric
PS. As if we didn’t know already, celebrities sometimes do the opposite in real life that they do when entertaining. Groucho was caught in the 1929 market crash just like everyone else. But he went out on Broadway that day and put on one heck of a show according to him.