SpaceX IPO

Using IPOs as an indicator

Let’s not sugarcoat it, most people aren’t in the financial markets for a long-term commitment, but more like George Michael on a sunny day in Beverly Hills.

Everyone laughed at this pop star falling to earth as if they didn’t have weaknesses, and more than that, they overlooked how George was caught through entrapment by the popo.

This is the exact situation that plays out in IPOs and, before that, in SPAC land.

This is an additional monthly indicator to see what’s hot in the marketplace and what is most definitely overpriced and sizzling.

So what is an IPO?

It’s when big banks and corporations, and Chamath Palihapitiya, get together and take businesses public for as much as the public will be willing to pay for the TAM (total addressable market) of it.

Not the real value, but the total and maximum it can have in the future.

The game is how high will it go before you get off the train. That’s it.

Many just trade it for one day and get out.

We will be seeing the biggest IPO of them all with Elon Musk’s SpaceX with ChatGPT and Anthropic a distant second.

Space has an allure for investors and is a perfect match between expectations and reality.

I mentioned Chamath Palihapitiya earlier as the pre-COVID market topped on SPAC (a compliance-light IPO) issuance, and where he was the king of them, selling space travel through Virgin Space.

When the stock collapsed, he told the disgruntled investors it was a tax write-off.

And that is indeed what IPOs are: tax write-offs.

But you can use other people’s manic desire to learn and observe the overall market's health and the period we are in.

Like margin debt, this is another area of hot money to observe and see how the results play out.

You can download this PDF plus more data by clicking the image.

No one is saying it’s a scam, but Wall Street knows your sin and they will definitely provide a service you so desire.

All documented in triplicate and looked over by the sharpest legal minds on the beat.

It’s a gamble for sure, but the speculation is in using the data to skew the results in your favor.

Have a great Thursday afternoon,

Eric

PS. If you like my content subscribe, I’m finishing up some usable booklets for your own reference and lots of other wonderful stuff on tap.