The Machine Doesn’t Know What I Know
But it sure can help
In Film School, the power of the word, the power of the title, the power of persuasion holds sway.
Headlines get you in the door and hopefully keep you there.
Corporations and the financial industry, like any long-established one, have a way of getting you to participate.
The crypto bros, until recently, had a mantra that worked for 13 years and may have to change it up a bit. Even Seth Rogen is starting to take on different roles than just a pot head.
I spent yesterday teaching the software to do something I’ve done instinctively for 25 years: read a headline and know if it matters.
Turns out, that’s harder than it sounds.
Here’s what happened:
From a strategy I learned at the largest day-trading firm in NY, Tesla gave me 4 losing trades and 1 winner last week. Net result: down 3%. If I’d just bought and held? Down 7-8%.
From one perspective, it's lousy, but from another, I have 4-5% more purchasing power.
The machine kept me in the game.
Bitcoin?
This is where it gets interesting.
Trading the headlines
up 12.6%.
Just holding?
down 16.5%.
The software is learning.
But it’s learning from my 25 years in the markets, not from some generic algo that thinks “hawkish” always means the same thing.
The problem nobody talks about:
Are you able to digest a simple example at 3:45? When you have had all day to be working and handling the days stress?
WSJ: “Beats estimates.”
Bloomberg: “iPhone sales disappoint.”
Reuters: “China weakness concerns mount.”
Which one drives the overnight move?
Right now, everyone is talking about what public headlines they will tally to mark the Bitcoin bottom.
If anything, if you have been reading me here or on X, I’ve been noting all the BS jerks for the past 3 months, making comments that were most assuredly a sign of the TOP.
My metric as it currently is. I only listen to prognosticators who get both bottom and top correct.
The machine is getting there. But it made a mistake this week I want to show you.
For subscribers today, I’ll share one key metric when I think Bitcoin will bottom.
For $5, you won’t hear it anywhere else, and I have the slight credibility that you are craving if you just take the time to peruse what I have shared.
When I overrode my own software:
The AI flagged “SEC enforcement action” against a crypto exchange.
Signal: short XYZ company before close.
I didn’t take it.
Why? Because I know from 25 years of watching regulatory headlines that by the time you read “SEC enforcement action,” it’s already priced in.
The smart money knew on Monday.
The headline is for retail. But most assuredly a sentiment at that point.
The machine will learn this.
But right now, it doesn’t have my scar tissue from getting burned on “material news” that wasn’t material.
Trading at the end of the day to capture the morning pop reduces stress because you’re not watching screens all day.
You’re reading headlines at 3:30 pm and making one decision.
But here’s the thing:
You need to know which headlines matter.
And as the markets heat up, I look forward to pointing out a few things.
Recently, I shared the book on Storytelling, Robert McGee - Story
If anything, that is what is coming out of Washington now, especially with a media-first President.
Even Scott Adams, the Dilbert cartoonist turned podcaster, said about Democrats that it’s a bunch of theater kids.”
Entertainment and persuasion have merged.
Our GOAT Warren Buffett is anything but a media hound saying down-to-earth maxims on investing that anyone can understand.
If it were only that easy.
What headline interpretation challenges do you want me to tackle next? Hit reply—I read everything.
