Would you like a Donut or a mini-one?
Mature investments don't go up as much as the smaller ones
Lately, as I try to downsize my waste, I’ve been choosing those wonderful mini-donut selections from Dunkin (and sometimes Krispy Kreme). I get a variety of options, don’t have to eat them all in one sitting, and can even share with my mates.
As I sit in the car waiting for my order, CNBC plays in the background. The numbers and jargon blur together: trillions of dollars, 1,000,000,000,000. Bitcoin acceptance, China buying everything. It’s a lot to digest with a coffee and a glazed.
So I step back and play a little mental gymnastics:
What will hold its value in 10 years — NVIDIA, Gold, or Bitcoin?
Briefly:
NVIDIA
• $4.4 trillion market value
• 50× earnings
• 32 years to get there
• ~25 billion shares outstanding
GOLD
• ≈ $30 trillion total value
• ~7 billion ounces outstanding; only a few million left they say
• 3,200 years to get there
BITCOIN
• $1.3 trillion value
• 15 years to get there
• Limited to 21 million units, almost fully mined
So where’s the growth?
Global monetary growth: ≈ 10 % per year
AI data center growth: ≈ 30 % per year
As for Bitcoin, wallet creation seems to be slowing while storage and accumulation keep rising. It’s conventional wisdom that BTC is “digital gold,” but that means as the price increases, it becomes less of a currency and more of a store of value.
So, while monetary growth is 10 %, does BTC only move during inflation? What if energy prices soar? Those “what-ifs” are for another day.
What they all have in common is that they’re more expensive than where they started. We’ve gone from billions to trillions, and thinking about where they go next feels like I have a sugar rush.
As I look at my mini donut, I think: why not buy the mini version of these big dogs?
“If you love the giant, buy the mini.”
It’s financial gravity.
Gold gets huge → Silver becomes the trade.
Bitcoin gets huge → Ethereum becomes the leverage play.
NVIDIA gets huge → Palantir becomes the speculative version.
Remember: stars don’t move, but comets do. Volatility is opportunity. When people feel they missed out, they look for the cheaper cousin so they can still participate — and maybe see bigger percentage moves.
Ethereum remains the main venue for stablecoin adoption, still collecting a fee from every on-chain transaction. Silver, the “poor man’s gold,” isn’t a U.S. strategic asset, but it rides the same cycles. Palantir, meanwhile, is bringing AI into defense, security, and governance — but it’s still a bit of a black box.
Whatever your choice, it’s still a donut, and donuts are delicious.
But the best trade is the one you can actually finish, like a mini
I’ll be on chat later this morning, looking for a few opportunities for subscribers.
Have a wonderful day.