You buy on looks

But eventually get what you pay for

The markets are very elevated right now.

And most of what you read in the news is already priced in.

So when you look at a company, the usual questions come up:

What’s the P/E?

What’s the growth potential?

What’s the TAM?

But honestly, those aren’t the question I start with anymore.

I start with a much simpler one.

Does this dude look like a lady?

Not literally, of course

When the quarterly reports come out…

When the CEO is doing interviews…

When every analyst on TV sounds optimistic…

Is the story real?

Or are you being played?

Because when stocks collapse after months of optimism, the explanation always comes later.

But the signs were there.

A friend of mine who trades would always shrug when something imploded.

He’d just say, while playing the latest version of World of Warcraft,

“Dude looked like a lady.”

Meaning:

Something felt off.

And if you invest long enough, you start seeing it.

You stop listening to the story.

You watch the signs.

Sometimes the bears are wrong.

Tesla shorts were spectacularly wrong.

But sometimes the crowd is wrong too.

So develop your own signals.

That instinct will save you more money than any spreadsheet.

And while you’re thinking about it, listen to Aerosmith.

Fifty years in the music business.

They’ve seen hype, collapse, reinvention, and survival.

That’s a masterclass in longevity.

I love listening to Tyler’s interviews and one rocker I would love to have coffee with and compare scarfs.

By the way check out my tv show this morning, had some good thoughts on AI and some stock ideas